The Black Sea: Why is it so important?

Geostrategic Importance of the Black Sea Region

Russia annexed Crimea illegally in March 2014. That annexation refocused global attention on the strategic importance of this region. The region lies on the fault line between two former empires. Those empires were the Russian Empire and the Ottoman Empire. Involved European powers such as Britain, France, Turkey, and Germany. This analysis provides an overview of the region. It argues that the past is a precursor to the region’s future.

It also revives the volatile power of experimental political and military strategy in a modern context.

Conflict between Russia and the Ottoman Empire ran for six years, from 1768 to 1774. It culminated in the signing of the Treaty of Kuchuk-Kainalga in 1774. This treaty granted Russia direct access to the Black Sea region. That access came via the ports of Kerch and Azov. Russia was also granted the right to protect the Ottoman Empire’s Christian minorities. The nominally independent Crimean Khanate was also affected by it.

Nine years after the treaty was signed, regional unrest broke out. Popular dissatisfaction with the reforms introduced by Russia's captured ruling elites was one cause. A steady influx of settlers into Crimea was another. It provided a long-standing pretext for Catherine II's envoy, Prince Grigory Potemkin. It waited to annex Crimea by military means, with little armed resistance. In the same year, the city of Sevastopol in Crimea was founded. From 1783 onwards, the Ottoman Empire gradually began to decline.

Russia gradually rose in the Black Sea.

The decline of the Ottoman Empire continued. So did the power struggle in the Black Sea region. Neither side achieved a decisive victory. The bloody Crimean War lasted from 1853 to 1856. It killed hundreds of thousands of people. France and Britain sided with the Ottoman Empire during the conflict. They feared that Russia's growing power would lead to Russian dominance in the region.

This goal was never achieved. Russia grew stronger and more isolated. It repeatedly failed to wrest control of the strategic Bosporus and Dardanelles (Turkish Straits). The Ottoman Empire held them. One of Russia's main motivations for World War I was to seize control of the Turkish Straits. This backfired when the Ottoman Empire and Germany blocked the straits and strangled the Russian economy.

During and after World War I, the Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed. Attempts were made to redraw the map of the region. They were unsuccessful. The first attempt was the Treaty of Sevres in 1920. The second and more successful attempt was the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923. That treaty laid the foundation for the Turkish Republic.

Turkey had achieved a more secure strategic position. It was able to use the Treaty of Lausanne to counter the growing tensions between European powers in the region. That effort culminated in the 1936 Montreux Agreement. The agreement established Turkish control of the straits. It also guaranteed Turkey's freedom of passage for warships of Black Sea countries not at war with Turkey. Restrictions were placed on non-Black Sea littoral countries sending warships into the Black Sea. Each warship must weigh no less than 15,000 tons, or 45,000 tons total. Warships must not stay in the Black Sea for longer than 21 days. The United States is not a party to the Montreux Convention.

Post-World War II and post-Cold War regimes

Tensions flared between the Soviet Union and Turkey. That happened at the end of World War II. It threatened to upset this fragile balance. The Soviet Union pressured Turkey to renegotiate the Montreux Agreement. The aim was to share control of the Bosporus and Dardanelles with Turkey. In 1946, the Soviet Union increased its military presence in the Black Sea. It also pressured the Turkish government to accept the establishment of military bases on Turkish territory.

To protect itself from Soviet pressure, Turkey requested assistance from the United States. The United States responded by sending American warships to the region. The Soviet Union eventually backed down. The incident was one of the impetuss for the Truman Doctrine in 1947. That doctrine sought to curb the growing Soviet threat in the Mediterranean. It did so by making Turkey and Greece members of NATO by 1952. An uneasy balance exists between Turkey, NATO, the United States, and the Soviet Union in the Black Sea region. From 1976, Turkey allowed Soviet aircraft carriers built by Ukraine to pass through the straits. These were the Kiev class, later the Kuznetsov class.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the geostrategic importance of the Black Sea region declined. That was the view from a Western perspective. Still, it remains an effective tool for shaping the concept of Russia's "near abroad". The most important strategic issue after the end of the Cold War was the removal of nuclear weapons from Ukraine. That was reflected in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum.

Ukraine agreed to remove nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the United States. The United Kingdom (supported by France and China) to protect its territorial integrity.

Despite the success of this policy, Ukraine and Russia continue to have a turbulent relationship. The strategic Crimean Peninsula is the reason. Crimea was given by Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev in 1954. It was a gift to mark the 300th anniversary of Ukraine's merger with Tsarist Russia. Crimea has become a constant bargaining chip between the two countries. Russia has retained military infrastructure, especially the base in Sevastopol. That base is essential for the operation of the Black Sea Fleet.

At the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union, there were 100,000 Russian soldiers and 60,000 military personnel. There were also 835 ships, including 28 submarines. These were effectively used to pressure Kyiv on the legal status of Sevastopol and its key infrastructure. Moscow was also fueled by Crimean nationalist fervour. It was able to leverage its enduring political ties with Crimean officials to increase pressure on Kyiv. Crimea retained autonomy and its constitution until 1995.

Practical considerations

The 1997 Ukrainian-Russian Friendship Treaty divided the Soviet Black Sea Fleet between Russia (81%) and Ukraine (19%). It also allowed Russia to lease the Sevastopol base for 20 years. That lease was extended in 2010 to 2042. The exchange was the cancellation of most Ukrainian debts and lower energy prices.

The Emergence of the New Russia

Russia has always considered a natural sphere of influence to be its own. That sphere includes its former Soviet republics and the Black Sea region. It lacks the political, economic. Military power to impose its will fully. This began to change as Russia adopted a more assertive regional policy. The shift responded to the so-called colour revolutions in Russia’s neighbouring countries. Georgia had the Rose Revolution of 2003-2004. Ukraine had the Orange Revolution of 2004-2005.

Leaders more susceptible to influence and interest were replaced by pro-Western, pro-European. Pro-Atlantic leaders.

At the same time, in 2004, NATO membership was expanded to include Bulgaria and Romania. That brought three of the six Black Sea littoral states into NATO. Two more, Ukraine and Georgia, worked closely with the alliance. Their potential goal was…NATO membership. NATO considers the Black Sea “very important for Euro-Atlantic security” (Bucharest Summit Declaration, 2008).

Russia considers these events as NATO encroachments on its traditional sphere of influence. It has taken steps to reestablish its influence in the Black Sea. It has also strengthened its military presence there. Russian energy was previously used as a tool to influence Ukraine in 2006 and 2009. Russia temporarily stopped gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine. It also increased Russian energy prices.

In August 2008, Russian troops thwarted the Georgian president's attempt to retake control of the breakaway region. Those troops had been in South Ossetia since 1993. That was when the conflict between Georgia and South Ossetia broke out. Russian forces then entered Georgia and crushed the Georgian army. They nearly seized control of the capital, Tbilisi. About 350 soldiers and 400 civilians died on both sides of the confrontation. Russia ignored the ceasefire soon after.

It recognised the "independence" of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Has since strengthened its control over Georgian territory and continued to integrate the two regions administratively.

Why Black Sea is Important to Russia?

The second event of greater geostrategic and military significance was Russia’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014. It came days after Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych was overthrown. That happened in a popular uprising in the spring of 2014. This violated the Budapest Memorandum and the Treaty of Friendship.

Russia’s remilitarisation of the peninsula and military intervention in eastern Ukraine had a clear effect. They paved the way for a massive military reinforcement of the region. That reinforcement included the deployment of S300 and S400 systems, Bastion-P coastal defence units. Other anti-air and anti-surface missile systems.

Former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Philip Breedlove, described Crimea in 2015 as a “platform for Russian power projection.” The entrenchment of Russian forces on the peninsula was accompanied by increasingly aggressive nuclear rhetoric. The Kremlin hinted at the possible future deployment of nuclear weapons on the peninsula. It stated that it reserved the nuclear option to defend Crimea if necessary.

The final step in restoring Russia’s military presence in the region came in September 2015. That was Russia’s military intervention in Syria. Russia demonstrated its ability to deploy its Black Sea Fleet. That was the first time since the end of the Cold War. It deployed both its Black Sea Fleet and its Maritime Fleet. It also placed defensive (S300) and offensive (SS-26) systems in the theatre. Russia currently operates an air base in Latakia, Syria.

It is currently renovating and expanding its naval facility in Tartus into a larger base. That base will be capable of accommodating up to 11 ships at a time. It also has an agreement with Cyprus to allow Russian ships to dock. It is currently negotiating a military base in Egypt. Russian officials have denied rumours about Libya.

The return of the Black Sea’s geostrategic importance

Russia was the 19th-century hegemon. It was depleted during the Cold War and depleted after 1991. It is now returning to the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean. European and American presence in the region wanes. Will the Kremlin try to gain freer access to the Eastern Mediterranean? That would mean expanding its presence in Tartus.

Will it continue to increase its military presence in Crimea and eastern Ukraine? Will it increase pressure on Bulgaria to reduce NATO presence? Will it work to coordinate a reconciliation between Turkey and Russia? That reconciliation would give it greater influence in the Turkish Straits.

For Russia, the geostrategic factors in the Black Sea region have not changed since 1853. NATO and the United States have replaced individual European countries as Russia's main geopolitical opponents. Crimea is a military source and Turkey is an axis. The Turkish Straits are Russia's main geopolitical hub.

However, the strategic axis and ultimate goal is to enter the Eastern Mediterranean. Russia would station troops there. The aim is to counterbalance the eastward expansion of the United States and NATO. It also counterbalances their presence in the Aegean and Central Mediterranean.

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