Commercial ship traffic through Strait of Hormuz rises more than 50% over past week

Commercial ship traffic through Hormuz is up more than 50% week on week, at about 18 vessels a day including seven oil tankers, against 130 to 140 daily before the corridor was blocked.

Commercial ship traffic through Strait of Hormuz rises more than 50% over past week

Seafarers and shipping managers now face a clearer picture: vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased by more than 50% compared with the previous week, yet the corridor remains far below its prewar throughput.

Current Traffic Levels

According to the latest Windward update, the third week of the reopening saw only 16 vessels passing the Strait. A few days earlier, traffic reached 55 ships per day, but today it has fallen to 18 vessels, with just seven of them oil tankers.

• Third week average: 16 vessels
• Peak a few days ago: 55 vessels per day
• Today: 18 vessels, 7 oil tankers

These numbers confirm a steep decline of more than 95% compared with the start of the conflict.

Historical Context

Before the block imposed by Iran on 28 February 2026, the Strait handled 130–140 vessels daily. That volume is the benchmark for “normal traffic” used by the market.

Oil tanker CEO Barstad has warned that traffic will not return to those prewar levels anytime soon. He also noted that a credible deal could lift the odds of normalisation, but the probability of reaching normal traffic before August has dropped from 66% to 21% over the last two weeks.

Factors Driving the Surge

The recent uptick follows a temporary deal that eased tensions. Negotiations are still ongoing, and the corridor remains a critical choke point for global energy trade.

While the exact terms of the deal are not public, the fact that traffic has risen indicates that shipping companies are cautiously resuming passage. The presence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard in the region continues to shape operational decisions.

Implications for Shipping Operations

For crews and operators, the current situation demands heightened vigilance:

• Route Planning: Even with traffic increasing, the corridor is still congested at a fraction of its capacity. Plan alternative routes if delays become critical.
• Risk Assessment: The Strait remains a high‑risk area. Maintain up‑to‑date threat assessments and be prepared for sudden changes.
• Communication: Keep close contact with port authorities and the vessel’s master to receive real‑time updates on traffic and security alerts.
• Compliance: Adhere to any new regulations issued by maritime authorities or the International Maritime Organization regarding passage through the Strait.

These measures help mitigate the impact of potential delays and ensure crew safety.

Monitoring and Planning Tips

Shipping companies should adopt a proactive monitoring approach:

• Use real‑time tracking platforms such as Windward to gauge daily vessel counts.
• Track the odds of normalisation reported by market analysts; a drop from 66% to 21% signals a need for contingency planning.
• Review the latest statements from oil tanker CEOs and other industry leaders for insights into expected traffic trends.
• Maintain a flexible schedule that can accommodate sudden changes in traffic volume or security conditions.

Looking Ahead

While the traffic increase is encouraging, the corridor is still far from its prewar throughput. The odds of normal traffic before August have fallen sharply, indicating that the situation remains uncertain.

Seafarers should stay informed about any new agreements or security developments. Until traffic stabilises, the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be a focal point for operational risk management.

For further guidance on navigating complex maritime environments, visit Marine Insight 360’s Shipboard Operations section.

Why an AIS vessel count is not a traffic count

Every number in this report comes from AIS. SOLAS Chapter V requires the transponders on merchant ships above modest size thresholds on international voyages, and commercial trackers build daily counts by watching those broadcasts cross a virtual line drawn across the strait.

AIS is a collision avoidance system that happens to be public. It is not an audited register. A transponder can be switched off, and in a contested corridor masters do switch it off. Positions can also be spoofed, so a ship broadcasts a track it is not sailing.

Port state control does check the equipment. Wrong or absent AIS data is a recorded deficiency under the Paris MoU and Tokyo MoU regimes. But that inspection happens alongside a berth, not in the middle of a strait, so it does nothing to firm up a daily transit count.

Both behaviours push the count the same way. A tally of vessels transiting a corridor under military threat is a floor, not a total. The gap between the reported figure and the real one widens exactly when the corridor is most dangerous, which is when the number gets quoted most.

That does not make the trend useless. A fall from around 130 a day to 18 is far too large to be dark activity alone. It does mean a single day's count should not be read as a precise measure, and that week-on-week comparisons are safer than day-on-day ones.

Next steps for reading traffic data

The mechanics of the tracking itself are set out in the AIS maritime tracking guide. For the chokepoint, see the Strait of Hormuz guide and the question of whether it can be closed in the Hormuz closure guide. Trade exposure sits in the maritime markets hub.